J.D. Davis is suddenly a defensive whiz. How and why the change could be for real (2024)

Almost two years ago to the day, this was the headline of an article published on The Athletic:

All of the Mets’ defensive problems, with a harsh spotlight on J.D. Davis, were exposed in their loss to the Cubs

It was a boisterous comments section, as you would expect after a clumsy blowout, and there wasn’t a single person disagreeing with the premise implied by that headline: The Mets’ defense was bad, and J.D. Davis’ fielding was the most glaring problem. He was a DH playing third base, and he was statistically and anecdotally one of the worst defenders in baseball. One commenter wondered if Dominic Smith would have been preferable at third (Smith throws left-handed).

On Wednesday, with the Giants needing two more outs to secure a series win, Davis made a brilliant defensive play. Except it wasn’t just a brilliant defensive play, but one of the rarest sub-genres of brilliant defensive plays: It was boring. Workmanlike. He made it look easy and expected.

It’s easy to harp on errors and miscues, but these are the plays that kill a team when they’re not made. If Davis doesn’t pick that and fire a laser to first, it’s first-and-third with one out. You have Dave Flemming and Javier López rightfully pointing out that it was a tough play, and maybe an error is charged and maybe it isn’t if the play isn’t made. Regardless, the Astros would have the winning run on base, with an extra out to play with.

Two years after the harsh spotlight was on Davis’ defense, he’s thriving. He hasn’t just moved from unplayable to playable at third. He hasn’t just become a defender who can stay out of his own way. He’s become an excellent defender, and it’s not just our easily misled eyeballs telling us this. Here are the current leaders for Outs Above Average for every position in baseball, not just third base:

1 (t). Javier Báez — 6
1 (t). Josh Rojas — 6
2. Ke’Bryan Hayes — 5
3 (t). J.D. Davis — 4

Davis is tied with eight other players, including the two highest-ranking center fielders in baseball and two shortstops. It’s not just this one stat, either. FanGraphs’ defensive metrics have him as the best non-catcher in the National League, full stop. According to Runs Above Average, no fielder in baseball has saved more runs.

It is not an overreach to suggest that this is one of the most surprising baseball developments over the last couple years. It’s not unlike Tyler Rogers ramping up to 94 mph, or Kelby Tomlinson becoming a 90th-percentile exit-velocity guy. So I have four questions:

• How?

• Should we have seen this coming?

• Will it continue?

• What can we learn from this?

Let’s try to answer them, one by one:

How?

The first question could probably be answered in a book-length format. The science of positioning, the value of repetition and consistency, the neuroscience behind the added pressure of New York baseball … my stars, get Malcolm Gladwell to write a book on this that I won’t read.

But Davis spoke to reporters after the game on April 25, and he laid down some of the basics. There is, indeed, a technical component to this:

“When I was over with the Mets … I was very wide in my stance,” Davis said. “So that would actually catch me being a little bit slower going left to right. Front and back, I was fine, but left and right …”

He talked about all sorts of technical minutiae that the average viewer (or columnist) might not think about as the play is happening, like softening the hands, and he mentioned the work he’s put into his backhand. He talked about the work he’s done with Kai Correa, and he name-checked Tommy La Stella’s Little Red Machine.

However, Davis also said something else illuminating: “All I can ask for is just to keep getting reps out there and keep getting games under my belt.”

This is something that comes up over and over again. Nothing is more important than experience for a defender, and I’ve referenced Russell Carleton’s study on this so many times that I should send him a crate of It’s Its packed in dry ice. It’s come up with Thairo Estrada’s strange defensive stats, and it’s applicable to all of the super-utility types that the Giants are trying to find and/or create. And while it seemed like Davis’ defensive reputation was written in stone with the Mets, he didn’t play there as much as you might think. Here are the seasons of his career, ranked by the most innings spent at third base:

1. 2021 (382 innings)
2. 2020 (269 innings)
3. 2019 (220 innings)
4. 2023 (180 innings)

In about two weeks, before the end of May, Davis should have more innings at third base in a season than he’s had in any season other than 2021. He’s finally getting a chance to feel comfortable at third.

Before the 2021 season, Davis’ defense at third was a big story in New York. Except it was getting attention as one of those preseason storylines, where there’s a sense of optimism. Mike Puma of the New York Post talked to Gary DiSarcina — the Mets’ version of Kai Correa — and there was a similar story. Reps, reps, reps. Pre-pitch positioning. Footwork. Except that story ended in headlines like the one from the beginning of this article.

My armchair opinion is that the intense scrutiny of his glove wasn’t helping him. Listen to the surprise of the Mets’ announcers on this throw:

The glove tap was a thing. It was a part of Mets discourse, and the rap on Davis was that his biggest liability was between his ears. It wasn’t so much the range or physical limitations, but an inability to make the simple plays right in front of him. You hear “change of scenery” so often that it’s become meaningless, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a real thing. You can’t just assume that Davis’ defensive improvements would have happened with another year with the Mets.

After starting the 2021 season with a commitment from the Mets to turn Davis into an everyday third baseman, he played just four games at the position in September. In 2022, he played just 45 innings there for the Mets before the trade, getting five starts. The universal DH gave the team an out, and that ended the experiment at third base.

Should we have seen this coming?

Feels like the answer should be a strong no. But I’m going with a half-hearted “maybe.”

For one thing, his arm was never the question. Check out this heat:

Davis said, “an 80-percent throw for me is better than most guys, and that’s not being cocky,” and talked about how a quicker release was more valuable to him than an extra step. Once that idea sets in and is implemented into game situations, boom. Instant improvement.

But that kind of tweak only goes so far. You get me 10,000 hours with the Little Red Machine and I’m still going to be a clankmitt. We’re talking about 99th-percentile athletes turning into 99.1- or 99.2-percentile athletes. Some fielders will never make that final leap from “better than almost every other human being at fielding grounders” to “better than other Major League Baseball third basemen at fielding grounders.”

So in another, larger, way: No. We shouldn’t have seen this coming. But the Giants might have.

After Davis was buried at DH with the Mets, the Giants gave him plenty of time at third base right away. It’s not as if the Giants are known for a defense-first approach when it comes to roster-building and lineup construction, but they saw something they could work with. And they were right.

Will it continue?

Don’t see why not.

This feels jinxy, like a “Here’s what’s going right with the bullpen” article published right before an important game. But even if defensive stats are famously fickle and subject to small samples, it’s hard to fake the improvements that Davis has made with respect to his lateral movement and general decisiveness. My guess is that he won’t finish the season with better fielding metrics than Nolan Arenado, like he has now, but that he’ll be an unambiguous defensive asset.

Again, as recently as 2021, Davis was one of the worst defenders in baseball. In the first half of 2022, he was a “break glass in case of emergencies only” third baseman. Now he’s perhaps the best defender on the Giants, and statistically one of the best in baseball after just over a month. When there’s a 180-degree turn that abrupt, it doesn’t hurt to pump the brakes a little bit. I was always proud that I didn’t write an article about Joe Panik’s launch angle and burgeoning power after he hit three homers in the first five games of 2018.

It doesn’tlook fake, though. And just for good measure, sort the league by “estimated success rate” to see where different Giants infielders end up. Davis is getting more difficult chances, on average, than most infielders in baseball. So are other Giants, which makes me think it’s a byproduct of a pitching staff that gets batters to bang the ball into the ground. Davis isn’t just handling the cupcakes without screwing up; he’s working for these outs.

What can we learn from this?

That baseball is weird, man.

That hard work can pay off.

That experience, muscle memory and repetition are important for fielders.

That baseball isuncomfortablyweird sometimes.

That when it comes to players who are so talented that they get to join the ultra-elite club of major-league baseball players, maybe assume that the ceiling is generally higher than you might expect when it comes to potential improvements.

That baseball delights in the good kind of surprises in addition to the Pennywise-kind of surprises.

And that maybe — just maybe — we shouldn’t shut the door on the narrative from 2021 that had the Giants as a brainy team that could help their defenders improve. Don’t forget that there was evidence that last year’s defensive collapse had plenty to do with bad luck, even if it feels whiny to point that out.

Either way, welcome to the future, in which J.D. Davis is apparently good at defense. Hit the weights, Kelby, and see if 30 homers is in your future. Start doing the Driveline drills, Tyler, and see if there are another 10 miles per hour in that arm. Because if this is the new reality, more baseball developments are possible than we might have ever considered.

(Top photo of Davis: Carlos Osorio / Associated Press)

Grant Brisbee is a staff writer for The Athletic, covering the San Francisco Giants. Grant has written about the Giants since 2003 and covered Major League Baseball for SB Nation from 2011 to 2019. He is a two-time recipient of the SABR Analytics Research Award. Follow Grant on Twitter @GrantBrisbee